Ieri leggevo alcuni articoli sulle manifestazioni di piazza in Brasile e Turchia e su quello che sembra essere, pur nella diversità dei contesti e fatte le dovute differenze, un elemento comune: la crescente insoddisfazione delle classi medie in Paesi emergenti come Brasile, Cina, Russia, Turchia. Mano a mano che gli standard di vita migliorano, infatti, aumenta la pressione sui governanti da parte delle classe medie per ottenere maggiori diritti e peso politico.
Una tendenza, questa, ben evidenziata nel recente e noto studio dell’Intelligence americana, il “Global Trends 2030” pubblicato a dicembre dello scorso anno. Scrivevano gli analisi del National Intelligence Council (pag.11):

Individual empowerment will accelerate substantially during the next 15-20 years owing to poverty reduction and a huge growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, and better health care. The growth of the global middle class constitutes a tectonic shift: for the first time, a majority of the world’s population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world. Individual empowerment is the most important megatrend because it is both a cause and effect of most other trends—including the expanding global economy, rapid growth of the developing countries, and widespread exploitation of new communications and manufacturing technologies.

Ed ancora (pagg. 9 -11):

Middle classes most everywhere in the developing world are poised to expand substantially in terms of both absolute numbers and the percentage of the population that can claim middle-class status during the next 15-20 years. Even the more conservative models see a rise in the global total of those living in the middle class from the current 1 billion or so to over 2 billion people. Others see even more substantial rises with, for example, the global middle class reaching 3 billion people by 2030. […]
The rapid growth of the middle class has important implications. Demand for consumer goods, including cars, rises sharply with the growth of the middle class. […]

Tale “esplosione” di relativo benessere, con implicazioni positive e negative, è comunque destinata a causare instabilità, sia all’interno dei Paesi emergenti che, indirettamente, a livello internazionale:

Two conditions can increase the prospects for instability: First, studies have shown that countries moving through the mid-range between autocracy and democracy have a proven record of high instability.
Second, countries that have a government system that is highly inconsistent with their level of development in other spheres, particularly their economic levels, tend to be less stable. These same two risk factors apply to a large number of the countries in the world.

Qualche mese prima della diffusione del GT2030, in occasione dell’Aspen Security Forum il direttore del NIC, Christopher Kojm, affermava:

The rising middle class will have little tolerance of authoritarian regimes, combined with the economic resources and education needed to challenge them. “Governance will be increasingly difficult in countries with rising incomes,” he said, adding “middle-class people have middle-class values and aspirations” for greater individual empowerment and are now armed with social media and other technological tools to bring that about, including the overthrow of repressive governments. 

Insomma, sarebbe meglio prepararsi in tempo alle…. instabilità prossime venture.