Il direttore del National Intelligence Council, Christopher Kojm, ha tenuto qualche giorno fa un intervento in occasione dell’annuale Aspen Security Forum nel quale ha presentato le principali conclusioni del prossimo “Global Trends 2030“.
Secondo la stampa che sintetizza il suo intervento (purtroppo sul sito del Forum non è stato caricato il video*) tra le tendenze strategiche nei prossimi 15 anni evidenziate nel nuovo Global Trends vi sarebbe anche una consistente riduzione della povertà mondiale con relativa esplosione della classe media:
The unclassified global forecast, which is due out by the end of the year, tries to “describe drivers of future behaviour” to help government agencies from the White House to the State Department plan future policy and programs, Kojm said.
The rising middle class will have little tolerance of authoritarian regimes, combined with the economic resources and education needed to challenge them.
“Governance will be increasingly difficult in countries with rising incomes,” he said, adding “middle-class people have middle-class values and aspirations” for greater individual empowerment and are now armed with social media and other technological tools to bring that about, including the overthrow of repressive governments. Eucation levels are also rising, with graduation rates for women set to exceed that of men if current trends continue.
On the negative side, Kojm predicted food demand will rise by 50 per cent in the next 18 years, although global population will only rise from 7.1 to 8.3 billion. Middle-class people want middle-class diets, which are heavy in meat, requiring more water and grain to produce, he said.
Adding to that, “nearly 50 per cent of humanity will live in water-stressed regions by 2030,” he said.
But Kojm also predicted that new technological developments could help close the gap between food and water shortages and need.
More people will migrate to cities, he said. Some 50 per cent of the world lives in urban areas now, rising to 60 per cent by 2030. The growth of the Asian economies, such as China, is expected to continue, but Kojm said the rising median age of China’s workers means it may be overtaken by countries with cheaper labour like India, Vietnam and Indonesia.
*Aggiornamento: il video è adesso disponibile.