L’opportunismo dei gruppi qaedisti secondo Brian Michael Jenkins:

Recent events in North Africa seem to indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are changing gears, from Afghanistan to other parts of the world, particularly Africa. Is that accurate?
Brian Jenkins: Al Qaeda has not moved from Afghanistan to Africa. Rather, the challenges posed by al Qaeda’s global enterprise have become more diffuse. Al Qaeda’s central command structure in Afghanistan and Pakistan has been decimated. Under continuing pressure, al Qaeda today is more decentralized, more dependent on its affiliates and allies.But al Qaeda has proved to be resilient and opportunistic. Its ideology transcends its organization. Organizationally, al Qaeda survives by insinuating itself into local conflicts which have deep roots.Al Qaeda did not lead the Arab uprisings, despite its subsequent claims that its 9/11 attack set in motion the events that led to the Arab Spring. However, al Qaeda has been able to exploit the turmoil created by the uprisings to gain new footholds, especially in the Sahel, Sinai, Yemen, and Syria.As a result, al Qaeda in the Mahgreb (AQIM), al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), al Qaeda’s front in Iraq (AQI), and al Qaeda adherents in Syria have become more important in the universe of like-minded jihadists inspired by its ideology.

How closely aligned are the different al Qaeda groups with one another?
Jenkins: The relationships are complicated. In some cases, local commanders are alumni of al Qaeda training camps and veterans of the wars in Afghanistan whose connections go back years. In other cases, local leaders may claim an al Qaeda affiliation to gain material assistance and credibility over local competitors. That does not mean that al Qaeda is calling the shots. Nor should the United States see every local conflict where an al Qaeda flag appears as a direct threat to U.S. security, requiring military intervention.

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