Le 10 previsioni economiche per il 2013 dell’IHS, ben nota società di consulenza strategica globale.
1. The US recovery will gradually pick up steam—unless it falls off a cliff.
The dynamics for a gradually accelerating US recovery are already in place. The balance of forces affecting US consumer spending have turned positive. Housing is—finally—showing signs of life and can be expected to keep improving over the next year. As global growth begins to reaccelerate (albeit gradually), exports will follow suit. Last but not least, as the uncertainty about the fiscal cliff and deficit/debt reduction is resolved, US businesses are likely to spend and hire more. This means growth will average around 2% next year. Of course, in the unlikely event that the US falls off the fiscal cliff for an extended period of time, a recession will probably be unavoidable.
2. European growth will be weak in the north and negative in the south.
Recent policy actions by the European Central Bank and EU governments have reduced the financial risks related to the Eurozone sovereign-debt crisis and helped to reduce long-term interest rates in the hardest-hit economies. Nevertheless, during the coming year, the economies in Southern Europe will remain deep in recession territory, mostly because of tough austerity programs and very high unemployment rates. Unfortunately, this will drag down the economies in Northern Europe as well. Some (including Germany) will see positive but weak growth. In others (including Belgium, France, and the Netherlands), growth will be flat to slightly down. On balance, this means a contraction of around 0.2% for the Eurozone economy in 2013.
3. China’s economy will slowly gain momentum.
Since 2010, the Chinese economy has decelerated significantly, with growth falling from over 10% to around 7.5%. Fortunately, there are already signs that growth has bottomed out and that a gradual pickup in momentum is in the offing. This trend will likely continue in 2013. Modest stimulus seems to have been effective in limiting the depth and duration of the domestic demand downturn. With the leadership transition now complete, there could even be a little more stimulus in the coming year. Furthermore, export growth can be expected to rebound, thanks to continuing (and improving) growth in Asia and the United States. All this will translate into growth of around 8% for China in 2013.[…]
9. The US dollar will be stronger against the euro and flat against the rest.
During the coming year, economic fundamentals (e.g., growth differentials and current-account balances) will tend to favor the dollar, especially relative to other developed economy currencies. On the other hand, as the growth outlook in the emerging world improves and capital flows into these economies ramp up once again, the upward pressure on these currencies could intensify, balancing out some of the positive forces working on the dollar. Meanwhile, as the world’s principal reserve currency, the US dollar is very sensitive to swings in investor sentiment and changes in risk aversion. Consequently, enduring worries about the Eurozone debt crisis will tend to favor the dollar over the euro and other risky currencies.
10. The risks facing the global economy will be more balanced.
Over the past year, the risks facing the global economy were skewed to the downside. In the coming year, not only will some of the big-four threats—another US recession, a Eurozone meltdown, a Chinese hard landing, and a war in the Persian Gulf—become less menacing, but there could be some upside surprises as well. Chief among these is pent-up demand from consumers and businesses. In the wake of the Great Recession and subsequent Great Stagnation, households and companies have been very cautious about their spending, preferring to save more and reduce their debts. There is some evidence that this process may be winding down—especially in the United States and parts of Asia.
