Il dipartimento di ricerca del Fondo Monetario Internazionale ha pubblicato le nuove previsioni sull’andamento dell’economia internazionale, il “World Economic Outlook“. Previsioni che continuano a non essere rosee per l’intera Europa e non solo per la “periferia”.

Notwithstanding old dangers and new turbulence, the near-term risk picture has improved as recent policy actions in Europe and the United States have addressed some of the gravest short-term risks. In the euro area, the main short-term dangers now revolve around adjustment fatigue, weak balance sheets, broken credit channels in the periphery, and insufficient progress toward stronger economic and monetary union at the euro area level.
In the United States and Japan, risks relate mainly to medium-term fiscal policy. Over the short term, a failure by the U.S. Congress to replace the automatic spending cuts (budget sequester) with back-loaded measures at the end of the current fiscal year would entail somewhat lower-than-projected growth in late 2013 and beyond. Of much greater concern would be a failure to raise the debt ceiling––the risk of such self-destructive inaction, however, appears low.
Over the medium term, downside risks revolve around the absence of strong fiscal consolidation plans in the United States and Japan; high private sector debt, limited policy space, and insufficient institutional progress in the euro area, which could lead to a protracted period of low growth; distortions from easy and unconventional monetary policy in many advanced economies; and overinvestment and high asset prices in many emerging market and developing economies. Unless policies address these risks, global activity is likely to suffer periodic setbacks. By the same token, a stronger-than projected policy response could also foster a stronger recovery in activity. In advanced economies, policy should use all prudent measures to support sluggish demand.
However, the risks related to high sovereign debt limit the fiscal policy room to maneuver. There is no silver bullet to address all the concerns about demand and debt.  Rather, fiscal adjustment needs to progress gradually, building on measures that limit damage to demand in the short term; monetary policy needs to stay supportive of activity; financial policies need to help improve the pass-through of monetary policy; and structural and other policies need to spur potential output and global demand rebalancing.