Pochi giorni fa il Cremlino ha diffuso la nuova National Security Strategy, il documento che sostituisce quello pubblicato nel 2009.
Come ben evidenziato da Mark Galeotti in questo commento, pubblicato su War on the Rocks, il nuovo documento ricalca in gran parte quello precedente con una piccola ma importantissima differenza. Mosca, infatti, da un lato prende atto che i fattori economico, demografico e tecnologico volgono in senso negativo. Dall'altro evidenzia come economia e tecnologia, ma anche la stabilità sociale, siano componenti chiave della sicurezza. Elementi, questi, che costituiscono veri e proprie "armi" nella lotta per l'influenza nell'arena internazionale.
Scrive Galeotti:

[…] It also once again demonstrates that in so many ways Moscow is conceptually ahead of the West in realizing thatsecurity and governance are essentially indistinguishable. Russia’s new style of so-called “hybrid warfare” is in so many ways simply a logical reflection of that understanding, and suggests that — even if out of political constraints, economic shortage, inefficiency and downright stupidity in some cases — they may not be able to pull it off, they are also well aware that Russia needs also to be considering “hybrid defense.”

There are three takeaways for the West. First of all, do not get too worried about the strident new language; the tone reflects Russia’s new antagonisms with the West, but the underlying strategy is the same. Second, the Kremlin’s real security concerns are not so much military threats as political, economic, and technological challenges. Third, while the Russian economy may be in trouble and their geopolitical aspirations disproportionate to their actual capacities, the Russian state still has sharp strategic thinkers and their understanding of the modern “full spectrum” political-informational-economic battlespace is still unappreciated by their Western counterparts.