A proposito di analisi di “lungo termine“, ecco come vedono il 2015 gli esperti del Carnegie di Washington.
Tra i vari pareri, tutti veramente molto interessanti, riporto solo l’ultimo, quello di Moises Naim (autore qualche mese fa di un bel libro sul futuro del potere). Alla domanda, volutamente “provocatoria”, su quali saranno le sorprese del 2015 il giornalista venezuelano risponde così:

 One of the main surprises of 2015 will be that three of the most disruptive events of 2014 will lose their potency. The Ebola epidemic, the Islamic State’s ascent, and the Russian president’s belligerence will still be with us in 2015, but they will not be as important as they were in 2014.

Sadly, Ebola will continue to claim lives. So far, however, the worst predictions have not come true. The World Health Organization warned that the Ebola virus in West Africa could see 10,000 new cases a week by December, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated a worst-case scenario of 1.4 million new cases by January 2015 and hundreds of thousands of casualties. In reality, the death toll is approaching 7,000, and the total number of cases is near 18,000 as of early December 2014. Ebola may not abate, but it does not seem likely that it will become a global pandemic.

Something similar will happen with the Islamic State. It will continue to operate in Syria and Iraq with some success, and individuals and cells directed or inspired by the group will still find targets to attack in other countries. But the financing, leadership, mobility, arms capabilities, and general military capacity of the Islamic State will be diminished. Its future will not be as successful as its brief past.

In 2015 Putin’s weaknesses will be more destabilizing than his strengths. Like the Islamic State, Putin has stimulated hitherto unimaginable alliances of nations bent on curbing his geopolitical misdeeds. The decisions of the Russian president have isolated his country and gravely damaged its already frail economy.

The drop in oil prices, the massive capital flight from Russia, and severe economic sanctions will surely limit Putin’s options. The danger, of course, is that this may lead him to pick fights abroad to distract from Russia’s domestic woes.

If the main disruptions of 2014 aren’t going to dominate the agenda in 2015, what will? I don’t know.

But I suspect that some of the surprises will have one of three origins. One, a cyberattack of unprecedented magnitude and consequences. Two, a catastrophic climate disaster with more fatalities and material losses than any we have seen before. Or three, the instability of oil-exporting countries as a consequence of the fall in crude prices.

Appuntamento al prossimo anno per vedere se Naim c’ha preso oppure no.