Se lo sono chiesto all’Atlantic Council di Washington ed ha cercato di rispondere Mathew Burrows, già dirigente del National Intelligence Council statunitense e coordinatore del noto programma di previsione strategica “Global Trends“.
L’analisi, intitolata “Middle East 2020: Shaped by or Shaper of Global Trends“, si è focalizzata su tre scenari di breve periodo (orizzonte temporale 2020) benchè, come specificato dallo stesso autore, proprio la natura dei problemi che affliggono l’area rende meno probabile un miglioramento della situazione socio-economica e politica in un tempo così breve.
E’ interessante notare come l’unico scenario realmente positivo (c.d. “Turning the Corner”) sia strettamente collegato al raggiungimento di un accordo tra Paesi occidentali del p5+1 e l’Iran. Scrive Burrows:
The regional cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia begins to thaw as Iran under an increasingly powerful Rouhani government shifts priorities away from revolutionary export of Islam and political hegemony in the region toward economic development. As the moderates around Rouhani gain the upper hand over the hardliners and refocus Iran toward modernization and away from confrontation, Ayatollah Khamenei dies. The new supreme leader is selected from an Assembly of Experts swayed by moderates.
Saudi Arabia and Israel are initially unhappy with the agreement, suspecting that Iran will continue to progress toward a bomb after sanctions are lifted and Iran is able to sell oil freely. Given Iran’s knowledge and experience in the nuclear program, the skeptics believe that Iran will eventually break out and go for a bomb, counting on the reluctance of the international community to reinstate sanctions and stop buying Iranian oil. Over time and with prodding from the US government, these and other skeptics will see that Iran is committed to economic development. Israel opens a back channel to Rouhani, seeking reassurances against a breakout. The success of those exchanges is enough to persuade Israel to back away from planning for a military attack. […]
Purtroppo, scrive ancora Mat:
For this optimistic scenario to occur, everything ha to fall in place, beginning with agreement on the nuclear issue, a thaw in the regional cold war, an Israeli-Palestinian settlement leading to a Palestinian state, and a rapprochement between Egypt’s military and Islamists. Israel and Turkey restore their warm relations as Israel builds a pipeline from its offshore oil deposits to southern Turkey. “Turning the corner” is not the most likely scenario, but it is not impossible either.