Lo Strategic Studies Institute statunitense ha pubblicato un secondo studio, dopo la monografia del giugno 2011, sul tema della modernizzazione delle forze armate di Mosca. Argomento quantomai di attualità. Il titolo è “Russian Military Transformation – Goal In Sight?” di Keir Giles ed Andrew Monaghan. Scrivono gli autori nelle loro conclusioni:
The current transformation of the Russian armed forces marks the final demise of the Soviet military, with a decisive step away from the cadre unit and mass mobilization structure inherited from the USSR. This transformation is intended to meet threats as they are perceived from Moscow, not from any other capital.
According to Putin, “The changing geopolitical situation requires rapid and considered action. Russia’s armed forces must reach a fundamentally new capability level within the next 3-5 years.”
After the application of shock therapy to the military in the autumn of 2008 and subsequent twists and turns in both policy and implementation that left Russian officers joking about roller-coasters and about their new secret weapon being complete unpredictability,
2011 saw the beginning of a more smooth and stable transformation process. This qualitatively new phase affected all areas of military reform and—in all probability—has shaped the force that will emerge after the reform process is deemed complete.
In part, this appeared to be due to new supervisory arrangements at the highest level, with the Security Council of the Russian Federation (SCRF) now approving reform plans. The apparent effect was to introduce stability not only by planning further ahead than in the early stages of reform, but also by providing a more methodical approach—with fewer instances of the Minister of Defence attracting criticism for enthusiastically embracing ideas from abroad without first assessing their suitability for Russian conditions.
But this latest phase of reform has continued with little adjustment through a change of defense leadership with the arrival of Shoygu as Minister of Defence in November 2012.
It follows that the impact on the direction of reform of leadership change at anything less than a presidential level should not be overstated. At the same time, it is essential to pay continuing attention to the aims and goals of the transformation process, since they are directly relevant to the military security not only of Russia’s immediate neighbors, but also of those states who Russia sees as a competitor, including the United States.