Da eFXnews:

As we’re getting closer to the fresh round of the Greek parliamentary elections which will take place on June 17, the base scenario for most of the market strategists is that the odds are low that Greece will exit the EMU as an outcome of these elections. Alan Ruskin, the global head of G10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank holds a similar forecast. He designed a spreadsheet containing 6 scenarios, probabilities and EUR/USD rates for the Greek elections where the combined probability for Greece’s staying at the EMU after the elections stands at 70%. The following is a brief presentation for the 6 scenarios:

1) A EUR friendly government, probably led by New Democracy, will mange to keep Greece in the EMU. >> Probability 45%, EUR/USD at 1.30.

2) A EUR friendly government that will still end with Greece leaving the EMU; no contagion event will take place. >> Probability 1%, EUR/USD at 1.15.

3) A EUR friendly government that will still end with Greece leaving the EMU; a major global contagion event will take place. >> Probability 4%, EUR/USD at 1.10.

4) An anti-austerity government, probably led by Syriza, will reach a compromise with the Troika and will manage to Keep Greece in the EMU.>> Probability 25%, EUR/USD at 1.25.

5) An anti-austerity government that will fail to keep Greece in the EMU; no contagion event will take place. >> Probability 1%, EUR/USD at 1.15.

6) An anti-austerity government that will fail to keep Greece in the EMU; a major global contagion event will take place. >> Probability 24%, EUR/USD at 1.10.