Un CEPR Discussion Paper appena pubblicato (e quanto mai tempestivo) analizza le motivazioni che hanno portato in Europa, dal 1919 al 2009, al nascere ed allo svilupparsi di periodi di instabilità sociale (scioperi e dimostrazioni ma anche assassinii, rivolte e rivoluzioni): "Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2009"
Lo studio di Jacopo Ponticelli ed Hans Joachin Voth dimostrerebbe l'esistenza di una correlazione diretta tra  periodi di austerità e tagli al bilancio pubblico, da un lato, e fasi di agitazione e violenza, dall'altro.
Scrivono i due ricercatori nelle loro conclusioni:
"Expenditure cuts carry a significant risk of increasing the frequency of riots, anti-government demonstrations, general strikes, political assassinations, and attempts at revolutionary overthrow of the established order. While these are low probability events in normal years, they become much more common as austerity measures are implemented (…) High levels of instability show a particularly clear connection with fiscal consolidation.
We demonstrate that the general pattern of association between unrest and budget cuts holds in Europe for the period 1919-2009. It can be found in almost all sub-periods, and for all types of unrest. Strikingly, where we can 
trace the cause of each incident (during the period 1980-95), we can show that only austerity-inspired demonstrations respond to budget cuts in the timeseries. Also, when we use recently-developed data that allows clean identification of policy-driven changes in the budget balance, our results hold. 
Finally, the results are not affected by using alternative measures of unrest. Contrary to what might be expected, we also find no evidence that the spread of mass media facilitates the rise of mass protests."