Obama e la CIA

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Ragazzi, vi segnalo questi due spunti di riflessione contenuti all’interno dell’ultimo Intelligence Guidance della Stratfor:

"United States: The New York Times published an article Jan. 10 titled, “The Label Factor: Is Obama a Wimp or a Warrior?” When Bill O’Reilly says that, it isn’t news. When The New York Times asks that question, U.S. President Barack Obama has serious problems, and those problems can have geopolitical consequences. When a U.S. president is on the defensive and the charge is that he’s a wimp, he tends to react. President John F. Kennedy used the Cuban missile crisis to his political advantage. President George H. W. Bush (the father) was accused of being a wimp. He responded with Desert Storm. President Jimmy Carter, accused of weakness during the Iran hostage crisis, attempted an ill-fated rescue attempt. The one thing presidents cannot stand is to be perceived as weak. It can kill their presidency. The New York Times is at the core of Obama’s constituency. If it raises the question, he has problems. The question is, how will he react? He could respond to Yemen, or possibly Iran. Or he might resist the temptation to respond. We need to watch this political question as it is key to the immediate future.

Afghanistan: The situation in Afghanistan has become more troublesome. The Dec. 30 attack that killed seven CIA officials at Forward Operating Base (FOB) Chapman in eastern Afghanistan will cause the United States to engage in some process reviews. That always takes time and diverts attention. In this case, it is necessary. The question is, what is the quality of intelligence the United States is getting from its sources? The war is built on intelligence, and the existence of one triple agent has to raise questions about the integrity of the human intelligence (HUMINT) networks. It is obvious that the Taliban would like to shake the Americans’ confidence in that network as the new troops deploy. There are two issues: What will the Taliban do next, and how long will it take the United States to vet its sources? One option is to hit back hard at the Taliban — but that depends on the quality of intelligence and to some extent, that depends on sources. The United States needs to break the cycle. Can it?"


Solleva due questioni importanti. La prima sulla leadership di Obama e la seconda sulla qualità della Humint americana in Afghanistan. Cosa ne pensate?