Secondo questo report di David Albright, Jacqueline Shire e Paul Brannan dell’Institute for Science and International Security l’Iran raggiungerebbe la c.d. "break-out capability" nel corso del prossimo anno:

"Although some media reports in November 2008 concluded prematurely that Iran has reached a nuclear weapons capability, Iran is moving steadily toward this capability and is expected to reach that milestone during 2009 under a wide variety of scenarios. In the short term, the response should include increasing economic sanctions on Iran and accelerating the timetable for U.S.-led negotiations with Iran over the fate and transparency of its nuclear program."