Vincono ? Perdono ? Come vengono eventualmente sconfitti ?
Seth Jones e Martin Libicki, della RAND Corporation di Santa Monica, hanno condotto una splendida analisi sulla nascita e la morte di 648 gruppi terroristici operanti tra il 1968 ed il 2006 (la monografia si intitola: "How Terrorist Groups End" ed è scaricabile qui.Qui il summary della stessa).
Quali conclusioni hanno tratto i due ricercatori?
Dall’audizione di Jones  (allegata in basso) di fronte alla Commissione Difesa del Congresso statunitense:

"We found that they ended for two major reasons: members decided to adopt non-violent tactics and join the political process (43 percent of the time), or local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members of the group (40 percent). Military force has rarely been the primary reason how terrorist groups have ended (10 percent), and few groups have ever achieved victory (7 percent). The results are also revealing for religious groups, (…). Only 16 percent have ended because of military force, and another 11 percent have ended because they joined the political process. By far the most effective strategy against religious groups has been the use of local police and intelligence services, which were responsible for the end of 73 percent of groups since 1968."

NB: dimenticavo di sottolineare che, se la memoria non mi inganna, questo è il primo vero studio sistematico su questo argomento…