Studi Strategici ed Intelligence… for dummies

Stuxnet svelato!

giu
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La più famosa cyber-weapon adoperata contro il programma nucleare iraniano sarebbe opera della National Security Agency. Lo scrive il New York Times e lo riprende il Washington Post riportando ammissioni non ufficiali di funzionari statunitensi secondo i quali l’NSA sviluppo’, a partire dal 2006, un’idea del generale James E. Cartwright, allora a capo dello Strategic Command. CIA ed intelligence israeliana si sarebbero poi occupati dell’inserimento del “pacco” all’interno dei sistemi informatici iraniani:

The origins of the cyberweapon, which outside analysts dubbed Stuxnet after it was inadvertently discovered in 2010, have long been debated, with most experts concluding that the United States and Israel probably collaborated on the effort. The current and former U.S. officials confirmed that long-standing suspicion Friday, after a New York Times report on the program.[...]

“Effectively the United States has gone to war with Iran and has chosen to do so in this manner because the effects can justify this means,” said Rafal Rohozinski, a cyber-expert and principal of the SecDev Group, referring to the slowing of Iran’s nuclear program.

“This officially signals the beginning of the cyber arms race in practice and not in theory,” Rohozinski said.
In 2006, senior Bush administration officials developed the idea of using a computer worm, with Israeli assistance, to damage Iranian centrifuges at its uranium enrichment plant in Natanz. The concept originated with Gen. James E. Cartwright, who was then head of U.S. Strategic Command, which handles nuclear deterrence, and had a reputation as a cyber-strategist.

“Cartwright’s role was describing the art of the possible, having a view or vision,” said a former senior official familiar with the program. But “the heavy lifting” was done by NSA Director Keith Alexander, who had “the technical know-how and carried out the actual activity,” said the former official.
Olympic Games became a collaborative effort among NSA, the CIA and Israel, current and former officials said. The CIA, under then-Director Michael V. Hayden, lent its covert operation authority to the program.

The CIA and Israelis oversaw the development of plans to gain physical access to the plant. Installing the worm in plant equipment not connected to the Internet depended on spies and unwitting accomplices — engineers, plant technicians — who might connect an infected device to one of the systems, officials said.

2 giugno 2012 - 9:30 am | by | 8 Comments »
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Global Security Forum 2012: i video

apr
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Sono disponibili i video del Forum del Center for Strategic & International Studies di Washington.
Svoltosi l’11 aprile, nelle vari sessioni si è discusso di bilanci militari ed operazioni speciali, di mercati energetici,  di geopolitica eurasiatica e pacifica,  della crisi economica europea, del ruolo americano in Pakistan ed Afghanistan e di cyberwarfare.

Qui di seguito alcuni video.

 

 

14 aprile 2012 - 9:00 am | by | No Comments »
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Sul rapporto tra Al Qaeda ed il talebani…

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… è stato pubblicato recentemente un libro, frutto di una lunga ricerca sul campo da parte di due analisti: Felix Kuehn e Alex Strick van Linschoten. Il titolo del libro è “An Enemy We Created: The Myth of the Taliban / Al-Qaeda Merger in Afghanistan, 1970-2010“.
Ahimè non l’ho letto ma qualche giorno fa si è svolto presso l’IISS di Londra un interessante seminario di presentazione (qui sotto il video).
A chi, invece, sentisse il bisogno di documentarsi alla ‘vecchia maniera’ segnalo “Separating the Taliban from al-Qaeda: The Core of Success in Afghanistan“, uno studio dei due autori pubblicato lo scorso anno dal Center on International Cooperation della New York University.

17 febbraio 2012 - 8:48 pm | by | No Comments »
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La strategia di Al Qaeda

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Il 23 gennaio un quotidiano tedesco, il Der Tagesspiegel, ha pubblicato la notizia che un documento strategico preparato dalla dirigenza qaedista sarebbe stato ritrovato ed analizzato dalle autorità di Berlino.
Riporta Daveed Gartenstein-Ross:

According to information obtained by Der Tagesspiegel, terror organization al-Qa’ida plans to fight a war of attrition against Germany and other Western states. Security sources say that a strategy paper drafted by the al-Qa’ida leadership based in the Pakistani-Afghan border area suggests that a combination of smaller and larger attacks “will drive the enemy to despair.” Other documents describe the taking and subsequent killing of hostages, the use of toxic substances, and how to give cover to fighters smuggled in.

Al-Qa’ida expects that growing fear among the general population and increasing reprisals on the part of the security authorities will marginalize Muslims. As a result of such escalation, Muslims will join the Holy War in ever larger numbers, security sources quote from the papers.

Ammesso che il documento sia originale (non l’ho letto e non conoscendo il tedesco mi devo basare unicamente sulle poche informazioni riportate da alcuni siti del settore) è interessante notare che:
a) la cultura strategica qaedista rimane quella propria di un’avanguardia;
b) come tale i qaedisti continuano a far leva sulla reazione repressiva delle autorità, secondo lo schema (semplificato): attentato qaedista -> repressione sulle comunità islamiche -> contro-reazione dei musulmani e adesione in massa alla jihad.
Per intenderci, lo stesso approccio del gruppi terroristici europei degli anni 70.

 

31 gennaio 2012 - 11:20 am | by | 7 Comments »
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Stallo in Afghanistan…

gen
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… secondo un recente National Intelligence Estimate.
Il NIE non è stato reso pubblico ma ne dà notizia, tra gli altri, il Los Angeles Time secondo il quale l'analisi  dell'Intelligence Community statunitense sulla situazione in Afghanistan non sarebbe molto positiva.

"The U.S. intelligence community says in a secret new assessment that the war in Afghanistan is mired in stalemate, and warns that security gains from an increase in American troops have been undercut by pervasive corruption, incompetent governance and Taliban fighters operating from neighboring Pakistan, according to U.S. officials. The sobering judgments, laid out in a classified National Intelligence Estimate completed last month and delivered to the White House, appeared at odds with recent optimistic statements by Pentagon officials and have deepened divisions between U.S. intelligence agencies and American military commanders about progress in the decade-old war. The detailed document, known as an NIE, runs more than 100 pages and represents the consensus view of the CIA and 15 other U.S. intelligence agencies. Similar in tone to an NIE prepared a year ago, it challenges the Pentagon's claim to have achieved lasting security gains in Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan, according to U.S. officials who have read or been briefed on its contents.
In a section looking at future scenarios, the NIE also asserts that the Afghan government in Kabul may not be able to survive as the U.S. steadily pulls out its troops and reduces military and civilian assistance. (…)
Military and Pentagon officials argued that assumptions used by intelligence agencies were flawed."

PS sull'Afghanistan è appena stato pubblicato dal CSIS un report dell'onnipresente Cordesman: "Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan War: How Does This War End"

12 gennaio 2012 - 8:40 pm | by | 8 Comments »
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