“America’s naval redeployment to Asia will leave gaps in NATO’s Atlantic defenses due to the effects of the European economic crisis“. E’ quello che teme il Ministro della Difesa britannico ed è quello che ha dichiarato in occasione dello Shangri-La Dialogue di Singapore.
In altri termini, se il maggior coinvolgimento statunitense in Asia comportasse una riduzione negli investimenti americani nella NATO ciò, a causa delle attuali ristrettezze economiche, non sarebbe compensato dagli alleati europei.
Come molti di voi sapranno a fine marzo si è svolto, organizzato dal think tank Security & Defense Agenda, il Security Jam 2012 del quale questo modestissimo blog è stato un orgoglioso “media partner“.
Oggi l’S&DA ha presentato ufficialmente il report contenente le 10 raccomandazioni elaborate nel corso del brainstorm virtuale.
“NATO leaders to consider Smart Defence in Chicago“, l’ultimo Strategic Comment dell’IISS.
Un breve articolo pubblicato dall’Economist sui futuri problemi dell’Alleanza.
In vista del summit NATO di Chicago l’Atlantic Council, influente think tank di Washington, ha pubblicato un report dal titolo: “Transatlantic Nations and Global Security: Pivoting and Partnerships“.
Il messaggio contenuto nel documento? Se la NATO vuole rimanere rilevante nei mutati scenari globali deve rendersi realmente operativa nel c.d. “Greater Middle East” e nel cyber-spazio, sostenendo la strategia statunitense e assicurando “congruenza strategica” col partner d’oltreoceano.
A critical element of the transatlantic bargain is for there to be fundamental congruence between United States and NATO strategy. The dynamic nature of the Greater Middle East and the new United States defense strategy have raised key questions about whether this remains the case. To achieve congruence at the strategic level, a first action would be to tie NATO and US strategies together at the NATO summit with an appropriate political declaration. The Alliance should create a Strategic Consultative Group to formulate a longer term strategy utilizing all elements of national power for the Greater Middle East, and particularly two arenas where the alliance or its member nations are most heavily engaged—the theater involving Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Central Asian countries; and the Iranian problem and the issues of deterrence, and proliferation in the Gulf.
The end of a decade of war and prosperity is proving transformative for the weapons trade as cash-strapped governments are cutting military budgets while defence contractors are shedding jobs and warning of shrinking revenues.
So it is with fortuitous timing – at least for defence companies – that a new enemy is emerging on the world’s stage.
Cyber attacks by well-resourced, highly capable and relentless, usually state-sponsored attackers – so called advanced persistent threats – are growing. (…)
By now almost all the major defence contractors have a cyber element.
Much of the mergers and acquisitions activity over recent years has involved defence companies buying knowhow or the access to new markets. Jane’s Defence calculates that about 14 per cent of defence acquisitions had cyber as their target last year.
In Europe, BAE Systems, Ultra Electronics and Qinetiq have the highest cyber exposure but for most of the group the per cent of revenue they get from cyber remains solidly in the low single-digits.
As their understanding of the market matures, defence companies are beginning to specialise their offering and spread out from their traditional defence customers to other government departments and industry.
Nevertheless, cyber is not the cure for all the defence companies’ traditional ills.
Even Lawrence Prior, executive vice-president at BAE, cautions against breathless excitement.
“There is so much hyperbole around the market. It’s a good market. There’s real growth. But it’s high single-digit, low double-digit growth depending on how you segment the market. It’s not triple-digits growth. This isn’t venture-backed, light-your-hair-on-fire growth.”
Meanwhile, cyber margins are usually well below those companies make for building and servicing defence equipment and parts.
To improve on them, companies such as BAE’s Detica are moving increasingly into offering products, rather than acting largely as consultants.
In doing so, they will have to adapt to a faster moving, more dynamic business than they are used to, says William Beer, PwC’s director of the information and cybersecurity practice.
But, he added: “If they [defence contractors] make the jump into the private sector, they stand a good chance of shaking things up and really, really enhancing everything we do.”
“It’s really been quite interesting how resilient and fierce they’ve been,” General Jodice said in a telephone interview on Sunday from his command center just north of Bologna, Italy. “We’re all surprised by the tenacity of the pro-Qaddafi forces. At this point, they might not see a way out.” (fonte: New York Times)
L'analisi di Anthony Cordesman (CSIS).
… "On target", by Economist.