Secondo un’inchiesta giornalistica israeliana – in onda domani – nel 2010 il Primo Ministro Netanyahu ed il Ministro della Difesa Barak avrebbero ordinato al Mossad ed alle Forze Armate di prepararsi per un attacco all’Iran ricevendo un sostanziale rifiuto.
[...] According to the “Uvda” investigation, Dagan came out sharply against the move in the 2010 meeting, telling Netanyahu and Barak: “You are likely to make an illegal decision to go to war. Only the cabinet is authorized to decide this.” Meanwhile, associates of Ashkenazi explain that the former IDF chief was concerned that raising the alert level would “create new facts on the ground,” leading to a war. Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview to the “Uvda” program that Ashkenazi responded to Netanyahu at the time, saying that the IDF was not ready, and that he did not have the operational capacity to carry out the order. Barak claims in the interview that, in contrast to Ashkenazi and Dagan’s positions, raising the alert level to “P Plus” does not necessarily entail going to war.[...]
Cyber attackers have targeted Iranian infrastructure and communications companies, disrupting the Internet across the country, a state official was quoted as saying on Wednesday. [...] “Yesterday we had a heavy attack against the country’s infrastructure and communications companies which has forced us to limit the Internet,” Mehdi Akhavan Behabadi, secretary of the High Council of Cyberspace, told the Iranian Labour News Agency. “Presently we have constant cyber attacks in the country. Yesterday an attack with a traffic of several gigabytes hit the Internet infrastructure, which caused an unwanted slowness in the country’s Internet,” he said. “All of these attacks have been organized. And they have in mind the country’s nuclear, oil, and information networks.” [...]
Leggendo questa notizia della Reuters mi è tornato in mente (chissà come mai…) il concetto di “swarm” che Edwards (anche qui), Arquilla e Romfelt espressero in due famosi saggio della Rand Corporation tra gli anni Novanta ed i Duemila. Quando internet non era ancora diventato cyber.
An internal report prepared by Israel’s Foreign Ministry calls for an additional round of international sanctions against Iran, an Israeli official confirmed on Thursday, in what appeared to be a rare Israeli acknowledgment that there might still be time to try to stop the Iranian nuclear program by means other than military action. Details of the report were leaked to Haaretz and were published on Thursday morning as the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, was on his way to New York to address the United Nations General Assembly. An Israeli official who is familiar with the report, but was not authorized to speak about it to it publicly, confirmed the points that appeared in Haaretz. The Foreign Ministry report states that the international sanctions already imposed on Iran are having a deep effect on the country’s economy, according to the official, and may, according to some assessments, also be affecting the stability of the Iranian government. But the sanctions have not yet persuaded the government in Tehran to suspend its nuclear drive. Therefore, the report concludes that “another round of sanctions is needed,” the official said.[...]
E’ quello che pensa Colin Kahl, già alto funzionario del Pentagono tra il 2009 ed il 2011, intervistato da Laura Rozen sulle recenti notizie provenienti da Israele.
Kahl ritiene infatti più probabile che la leadership israeliana – segnatamente il Primo Ministro Netanyahu ed il Ministro della Difesa Barak – stia preparando mediaticamente il terreno per un vero intervento militare contro i siti iraniani tra settembre e fine ottobre.
Al-Monitor How do you read the flurry of recent Israeli media reports telegraphing Israeli leaders, particularly Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, contemplating a possible fall strike on Iran? Kahl I think the threat should be taken very seriously. The standard counter argument is that Netanyahu and Barak are bluffing with the goal of pushing the international community to act — meaning pressuring us and the Europeans to increase sanctions, the Russians and Chinese to push Tehran; and/or force a near-term US attack. The saber-rattling could also be aimed at coercing the Iranians. But I don’t think they are merely bluffing in this case. Al-Monitor Why are the arguments that it is not just saber-rattling more compelling? Kahl First, US and European sanctions have nearly maxed out. So what additional benefit does the saber-rattling produce here? Second, the P5+1 process is on hold for the moment and a major breakthrough on the accelerated timeline envisioned by the Israelis is unlikely. Not to mention the fact that some Israeli decision- makers seem skeptical of the benefits of diplomacy, period. Third, despite the saber-rattling, the Iranians don’t fear an Israeli strike (although they might fear a US strike). So Tehran isn’t likely to make a concession in the near-term just because of an Israeli threat. Finally, the Israelis would seem to know that the prospect of a US strike before the [November 6 US presidential] election is very low, regardless of their posture. This is not primarily for political reasons, as some suggest, but because Iran is not likely to cross US red lines this year. So the prospect of an Israeli attack is unlikely to drive Obama to war before November. So, I think it is more likely Israeli leaders are preparing the Israeli public for a strike, and creating a narrative for the international community that diplomacy and sanctions have failed and thus Israel has no choice [...].
Piccola nota a margine. Kahl è attualmente senior fellow del CNAS, think tank molto vicino all’amministrazione Obama.
A giugno Kahl ha pubblicato uno studio proprio sul conflitto latente tra Israele ed Iran: “Risk and Rivalry: Israel, Iran and the Bomb“. Una lettura consigliata.