Studi Strategici ed Intelligence… for dummies

Tra i due litiganti i terzi godono

nov
30


Il CSIS ha pubblicato un report che analizza il ruolo della Russia e della Cina nella competizione strategica tra Stati Uniti ed Iran.
Facilmente sintetizzato in questo passaggio:

China and Russia are key players in US-Iranian strategic competition. As major world powers and permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and Russia play an important role in shaping sanctions and other aspects of international action in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program. Leaders in Moscow and Beijing focus on the influence, security and economic gains to their respective leaderships, and pursue international relationships from that standpoint. At present, external pressure from the US and its allies is not able to make either China or Russia give up all ties to Iran, and they manipulate such ties to Iran as a bargaining chip in dealing with the US, as well as the European and Arab Gulf states.
Both countries seek to maximize the benefits they can gain from the ongoing competition by refusing to commit to either player. Both nations have an interest in preventing or at least forestalling open hostility that will upset this balancing act, as any conflict could have an impact on their economies and seek to use their support of either side to advance their own positions.

30 novembre 2012 - 5:30 pm | by | 1 Comment »
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La razionalità delle Forze Armate israeliane

nov
04


Secondo un’inchiesta giornalistica israeliana – in onda domani – nel 2010 il Primo Ministro Netanyahu ed il Ministro della Difesa Barak avrebbero ordinato al Mossad ed alle Forze Armate di prepararsi per un attacco all’Iran ricevendo un sostanziale rifiuto.

[...] According to the “Uvda” investigation, Dagan came out sharply against the move in the 2010 meeting, telling Netanyahu and Barak: “You are likely to make an illegal decision to go to war. Only the cabinet is authorized to decide this.” Meanwhile, associates of Ashkenazi explain that the former IDF chief was concerned that raising the alert level would “create new facts on the ground,” leading to a war.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview to the “Uvda” program that Ashkenazi responded to Netanyahu at the time, saying that the IDF was not ready, and that he did not have the operational capacity to carry out the order. Barak claims in the interview that, in contrast to Ashkenazi and Dagan’s positions, raising the alert level to “P Plus” does not necessarily entail going to war.[...]

4 novembre 2012 - 10:53 pm | by | 5 Comments »
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Cyber-attacco all’Iran!!

ott
04


Cyber attackers have targeted Iranian infrastructure and communications companies, disrupting the Internet across the country, a state official was quoted as saying on Wednesday. [...]
“Yesterday we had a heavy attack against the country’s infrastructure and communications companies which has forced us to limit the Internet,” Mehdi Akhavan Behabadi, secretary of the High Council of Cyberspace, told the Iranian Labour News Agency.
“Presently we have constant cyber attacks in the country. Yesterday an attack with a traffic of several gigabytes hit the Internet infrastructure, which caused an unwanted slowness in the country’s Internet,” he said.
“All of these attacks have been organized. And they have in mind the country’s nuclear, oil, and information networks.” [...]

Leggendo questa notizia della Reuters mi è tornato in mente (chissà come mai…) il concetto di “swarm” che Edwards (anche qui), Arquilla e Romfelt espressero in due famosi saggio della Rand Corporation tra gli anni Novanta ed i Duemila. Quando internet non era ancora diventato cyber.

4 ottobre 2012 - 6:22 am | by | 25 Comments »
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…ed Israele allenta la pressione

set
27


Dal New York Times di oggi:

An internal report prepared by Israel’s Foreign Ministry calls for an additional round of international sanctions against Iran, an Israeli official confirmed on Thursday, in what appeared to be a rare Israeli acknowledgment that there might still be time to try to stop the Iranian nuclear program by means other than military action.
Details of the report were leaked to Haaretz and were published on Thursday morning as the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, was on his way to New York to address the United Nations General Assembly. An Israeli official who is familiar with the report, but was not authorized to speak about it to it publicly, confirmed the points that appeared in Haaretz.
The Foreign Ministry report states that the international sanctions already imposed on Iran are having a deep effect on the country’s economy, according to the official, and may, according to some assessments, also be affecting the stability of the Iranian government. But the sanctions have not yet persuaded the government in Tehran to suspend its nuclear drive. Therefore, the report concludes that “another round of sanctions is needed,” the official said.[...]

27 settembre 2012 - 10:26 pm | by | 6 Comments »
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