L’Institute for National Security Studies di Tel Aviv ha appena pubblicato il suo ultimo Strategic Assessment.
Nel numero di ottobre, tra gli altri saggi, ce n’è uno di Ephraim Asculai sul programma nucleare iraniano.
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Since the world is divided on the ways of preventing Iran from becoming a full-fledged nuclear state, and since the current Unites States administration is reluctant to take any overt action other than sanctions, prevention of this situation hinges on the political decisions of the Iranian regime.Most likely in the short range, the Iranian regime will assume a posture of ambiguity, while slowly increasing the visibility of its potential for acquiring a military nuclear capability. Without Iran taking overt military action against other states, it is difficult to foresee that the US or any other state or group of states will take military action against Iran. Thus, it is imperative that Israel’s government prepare for the new developing situation.
Today’s reality indicates that regime change is the only way to materially change the situation in Iran, with persuasion of the new regime to become a rational member of the international community much in the way that Japan, for example, is accepted. Although a legitimate wish, it is too much to hope for a complete dismantlement of the military nuclear project, following the pattern of South Africa in the 1990s. Israel must assume that this will not happen, and must prepare itself to cope with all possible scenarios emanating from the eventuality of a nuclear-capable Iran. The better it is prepared, the better it will be able to cope with the situation.