Studi Strategici ed Intelligence… for dummies

“La minaccia nord-coreana è sopravvalutata”

apr
08


Lo sostiene la società di analisi Aegis Advisory secondo la quale, comunque, il rischio di conflitto nella Penisola coreana rimane stabilmente elevato.

  [...] Bellicose words from North Korea are nothing new. The question this time is whether its 30-year-old leader Kim Jong-un is ready, willing and able to start and fight an all-out war. Perhaps the best answer came a few days ago from White House spokesman Jay Carney, who spoke of the “gap between rhetoric and action”. Pyongyang has several motives for its recent actions. Provoking a conflict that would probably lead to its own annihilation (apart from anything else) is not one of them.

What does North Korea want? In terms of foreign policy objectives, it wants to test the new administration of Park Geun-hye in Seoul and gain the upper hand in that relationship; to win recognition from Washington as a nuclear state; and (probably) to secure economic aid. Its only strategy for achieving the above is intimidation. Internally, Pyongyang wants to unite its populace against an external threat, not least as state control over the economy and society is eroding. The stridency of the threats may partly be because the world is not responding by offering concessions, and also because Kim is under the influence of hardliners or just wants to look tough.

The risks of conflagration, as ever in Korea, are significant. With tensions so high, Seoul’s government has given military commanders direct authority to respond to any provocation, raising the spectre of a small-scale border incident that could swiftly escalate. Kim’s relative youth, inexperience and uncertain hold over his regime make the situation even more precarious.

Yet war remains unlikely. We have been here before: Pyongyang has previously used all the above tactics, bar the Kaesong lockout. And while the threats of military action have been more direct than usual, North Korea rarely gives advance notice of attacks, and no unusual military movements such as large-scale movements of troops or weapons have been detected. Moreover, Seoul’s strong stance could also deter provocations, while Washington in turn is likely to restrain South Korean forces from precipitate action. Most importantly, the Kim regime’s desire for self-preservation should forestall accidents leading to war. [...]

8 aprile 2013 - 11:00 am | by | 11 Comments »
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Strategia, Cina e Pacifico

mar
27


Sono i temi dei due volumi appena pubblicati che voglio segnalarvi. Specifico: non li ho ancora letti ma ritengo che gli autori (e gli editori) siano una garanzia.
Il primo è il nuovo libro del grande Colin Gray di prossima pubblicazione: “Perspectives on Strategy“, edito dalla Oxford Press. Il secondo è il nuovo Adelphi dell’IISS: “Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Disputes“.

27 marzo 2013 - 4:00 pm | by | No Comments »
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Troppa attenzione su Al Qaeda

mar
23


Lo avrebbe segnalato qualche mese fa al Presidente degli Stati Uniti il suo Intelligence Advisory Board, secondo il quale l’eccessiva focalizzazione dell’Intelligence (CIA, in particolare) sulle attività paramilitari per il contrasto ad Al Qaeda avrebbe distorto le Agenzie americane da altre priorità, quali la Cina ed il Medio-Oriente.

A panel of White House advisers warned President Obama in a secret report that U.S. spy agencies were paying inadequate attention to China, the Middle East and other national security flash points because they had become too focused on military operations and drone strikes, U.S. officials said.
Led by influential figures including new Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and former senator David L. Boren (D-Okla.), the panel concluded in a report last year that the roles of the CIA, the National Security Agency and other spy services had been distorted by more than a decade of conflict.
The classified document called for the first significant shift in intelligence resources since they began flowing heavily toward counterterrorism programs and war zones after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
The findings by the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board may signal a turning point in the terrorism fight. The document was distributed to senior national security officials at the White House whose public remarks in recent weeks suggest that they share some of the panel’s concerns. [...]

“The intelligence community has become to some degree a military support operation,” said Boren, a former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee who serves as co-chairman of the Intelligence Advisory Board. Boren said the deployment of intelligence personnel and resources has become so unbalanced that it “needs to be changed as dramatically as it was at the end of the Cold War.”
Another panelist, former congressman Lee H. Hamilton (D-Ind.), said traditional espionage “has suffered as the CIA has put more and more effort into the operational side.” Hamilton was co-chairman of the 9/11 Commission, whose findings helped usher in far-reaching intelligence changes, including shifting huge resources to counter the terrorist threat.
Now concerned that the shift has gone too far, Hamilton said that it is time to “redirect the war footing that we’ve had, the focus on counterterrorism . . . and go back to the traditional functions of gathering and analyzing.”
U.S. intelligence officials acknowledged that demands on spy agencies have grown in recent years, driven by political turmoil associated with the Arab Spring, the cyber-espionage threat posed by China and the splintering of militant groups in North Africa. The pressure has been compounded by shrinking or stagnant budgets for most agencies after years of double-digit increases.

In breve: il calo nella percezione della minaccia terroristica, i limiti al budget, gli eventi in Medio-Oriente e la continua ascesa cinese nel Sud-Est asiatico consigliano di ritornare, dopo la fase degli anni Duemila post-11 settembre, a fare “business as usual”.

23 marzo 2013 - 2:59 pm | by | No Comments »
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La Cina spera di coprirsi le spalle

mar
22


Sul viaggio in Russia del nuovo leader cinese Xi un articolo del Washington Post:

China’s new president, who has chosen Moscow as his first foreign destination, urged Russia to work closer with Beijing on foreign policy matters in order to better protect their joint security and interests.
The comments from Xi Jinping Friday appeared to reflect a growing desire to secure Russia’s backing for a new assertiveness that he has shown in challenging U.S. influence in Asia, and Japan over a set of disputed islands.[...]

Douglas H. Paal and Dmitri Trenin of Carnegie Endowment said in an analysis this week that China may try to woo Moscow to Beijing’s side in its quarrel with Japan and entice it to cooperate more actively against the U.S.-led missile shield in northeast Asia.
However, they said Russia is unlikely to show much enthusiasm as it wants to normalize relations with Tokyo and doesn’t share the Chinese grievances about the U.S. missile defenses in the Pacific region. Still, they said, Moscow and Beijing are interested in nurturing close ties.
“For China, Putin personally can be relied upon to keep an arm’s length from Washington and to promote a multipolar world, not one dominated by the United States,” Paal and Trenin said. “For Russia, the growth of China, India, and other emerging powers is clearest evidence of the multipolar world becoming a reality. Thus, demonstrating Sino-Russian cooperation serves the interests of both in offsetting American power and influence.”

22 marzo 2013 - 4:28 pm | by | No Comments »
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L’edizione 2013 del Forum di Bruxelles

mar
17


Si è appena conclusa a Bruxelles l’annuale forum transatlantico organizzato dal German Marshall Fund.
Tra le diverse sessioni open (alcune, infatti, sono off the record) ho trovato particolarmente interessanti quella dedicata all’indipendenza energetica statunitense, quella sulla partnership economica tra Stati Uniti ed Europa, quella sul futuro del potere in Cina e, soprattutto, quella nella quale Christopher A. Kojm, chairman del NIC, ha presentato i risultati del Global Trends 2030.
Per chi fosse interessato sono disponibili i video e le trascrizioni degli interventi di tutte le sessioni aperte.

17 marzo 2013 - 11:28 pm | by | No Comments »
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Un po’ di economia e geopolitica secondo Goldman Sachs

mar
13


Qualche giorno fa, al Workshop Ambrosetti, Jim O’Neil, famoso economista della Goldman Sachs (fu lui a coniare l’acronimo BRIC), ha tenuto un intervento (qui le slides) sullo stato e sulle prospettive dell’economia internazionale.
A chi fosse interessato a capire come la banca d’affari americana vede il mondo consiglio l’Outlook 2013 della Investment Management Division.

13 marzo 2013 - 3:25 pm | by | No Comments »
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