Oggi sono finalmente riuscito a leggere la National Intelligence Strategy statunitense, da poco pubblicata dal DNI, il capo dell’Intelligence Community di Washington. Paragonata ai due documenti precedenti (la NIS è quinquennale e viene pubblicata dal 2005) quella appena pubblicata è, a mio avviso, deludente. Molto più generica e fumosa sia nei sette “mission objectives” (gli obiettivi strategici) che nei sei “enterprise objectives” (gli obiettivi tattici). Tutti, comunque, sostanzialmente in piena continuità con gli obiettivi già fissati nei due documenti precedenti.
Evidenzio solo un passaggio del documento, contenuto nella parte nella quale il DNI descrive il contesto strategico all’interno del quale deve essere garantita la sicurezza nazionale:
Global Environment. Global power is becoming more diffuse. New alignments and informal networks—outside of traditional power blocs and national governments—will increasingly have significant impact in economic, social, and political affairs. Resolving complex security challenges will require the IC’s attention to a broader array of actors.
Private, public, governmental, commercial, and ideological players will become increasingly influential, both regionally and virtually. The projected rise of a global middle class and its growing expectations will fuel economic and political change. Some states and international institutions will be challenged to govern or operate effectively.
Many governments will face challenges to meet even the basic needs of their people as they confront demographic change, resource constraints, effects of climate change, and risks of global infectious disease outbreaks. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions—conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence. The risk of conflict and mass atrocities may increase.
Small, local actions can have disproportionate and enduring effects. Groups can form, advocate, and achieve goals—for political, social, and economic change—all without central leadership. Identifying, understanding, and evaluating such movements will be both a continuing challenge and an opportunity for the IC.