L’Europol ha pubblicato qualche giorno fa il TE-SAT 2013, l’analisi strategica sullo stato della minaccia terroristica in Europa.
Due punti degni di nota (a modesto parere del sottoscritto):
1) la crisi economica, fino al momento, non sembra aver avuto un impatto negativo sulla minaccia terroristica nel continente. Scrivono gli analisi dell’Europol:
The current economic conditions in the EU do not appear to have had a significantly negative impact on the overall terrorism and violent extremism picture. In the face of the continuing challenges of the economic situation and the associated governmental austerity measures, attacks by terrorists and violent extremists have not markedly increased since 2008. Although financial institutions, government buildings and officials have been targeted in some EU Member States in 2012, principally by violent leftwing and anarchist extremists, attacks and violent demonstrations appear to have been relatively sporadic. However, this does not preclude the potential for a future increase in similarly motivated offences.
2) crisi nord-africane e, in prospettiva, crisi siriana costituiscono, invece, pericolosi focolai di tensione:
The situation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is significant for the terrorist threat in the EU.
Two years on from the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings, the situation in North Africa remains unstable. Two attacks in Benghazi, Libya – one in June against the UK Ambassador and the other in September against the US Ambassador, which resulted in his murder – underline the threat. The volatile situation in Mali also requires significant attention, as it offers a new theatre that may appear an attractive destination for those seeking to engage in armed conflict in support of religiously inspired insurgents. These individuals may pose a threat on their return to the EU. […]
The current civil war in Syria has attracted a number of radicalised EU citizens. In recent years, such individuals seeking to engage in either fighting or training in conflict zones have travelled to the Afghanistan/Pakistan region, Yemen or Somalia – all regions that are relatively difficult to access. However, in 2012 there was a distinct rise in the number of EU citizens travelling to Syria, in a number of cases fighting alongside groups associated with religiously inspired terrorism. Comparative ease of entry and robust facilitation networks offer these individuals a smoother path to the country. The full implications of increased participation of EU citizens are currently unclear but may have an impact on the future security situation in the EU.