L’analisi dell’Istituto di Studi Strategici di Londra!
Come sempre, la questione necessita di un approccio di lungo termine:
[…] If France is to fulfil its three stated aims in Mali – stopping the terrorist aggression, making Bamako safe and enabling Mali to recover its territorial integrity – it will have to do more than just engage with rebel fighters. The capacity of Mali’s armed forces will have to be dramatically improved, and their territorial reach expanded, so that they can themselves address threats to state integrity beyond the vicinity of Bamako. The international assistance missions designed to do just this were planned to start over a period of months. These are now being fast-tracked after the events of the past week.
But developing military capability is not the only concern; developing state security capacity in general terms is perhaps more important in the long term, as well as the broader arms of state authority such as finance, political and justice structures, and measures of accountability. This would help to boost the resilience of state authorities, while raising the confidence of the public and, crucially, the security forces.
There is no short-term fix to these problems. Mali’s security forces are institutionally weak and have limited capabilities. Continuing operations in the manner France has thus far pursued will be dependent on French forces’ ability to degrade the rebels’ military capacity; the ability of an effective core of Mali’s troops to regroup relatively quickly; the timetable to train and equip new troops in the midst of conflict; and the capacity of AFISMA military personnel to engage rebel groups alongside their Malian counterparts. Otherwise it is possible that French military operations might be of longer duration than currently envisaged. Even if AFISMA forces are able to deploy in strength, wider international involvement will likely remain vital in the areas of organisational, intelligence and logistics support, as well as financing.