E’ quello che pensa Colin Kahl, già alto funzionario del Pentagono tra il 2009 ed il 2011, intervistato da Laura Rozen sulle recenti notizie provenienti da Israele.
Kahl ritiene infatti più probabile che la leadership israeliana – segnatamente il Primo Ministro Netanyahu ed il Ministro della Difesa Barak – stia preparando mediaticamente il terreno per un vero intervento militare contro i siti iraniani tra settembre e fine ottobre.
Al-Monitor How do you read the flurry of recent Israeli media reports telegraphing Israeli leaders, particularly Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, contemplating a possible fall strike on Iran?
Kahl I think the threat should be taken very seriously. The standard counter argument is that Netanyahu and Barak are bluffing with the goal of pushing the international community to act — meaning pressuring us and the Europeans to increase sanctions, the Russians and Chinese to push Tehran; and/or force a near-term US attack. The saber-rattling could also be aimed at coercing the Iranians. But I don’t think they are merely bluffing in this case.
Al-Monitor Why are the arguments that it is not just saber-rattling more compelling?
Kahl First, US and European sanctions have nearly maxed out. So what additional benefit does the saber-rattling produce here? Second, the P5+1 process is on hold for the moment and a major breakthrough on the accelerated timeline envisioned by the Israelis is unlikely. Not to mention the fact that some Israeli decision- makers seem skeptical of the benefits of diplomacy, period. Third, despite the saber-rattling, the Iranians don’t fear an Israeli strike (although they might fear a US strike). So Tehran isn’t likely to make a concession in the near-term just because of an Israeli threat.
Finally, the Israelis would seem to know that the prospect of a US strike before the [November 6 US presidential] election is very low, regardless of their posture. This is not primarily for political reasons, as some suggest, but because Iran is not likely to cross US red lines this year. So the prospect of an Israeli attack is unlikely to drive Obama to war before November.
So, I think it is more likely Israeli leaders are preparing the Israeli public for a strike, and creating a narrative for the international community that diplomacy and sanctions have failed and thus Israel has no choice […].
Piccola nota a margine. Kahl è attualmente senior fellow del CNAS, think tank molto vicino all’amministrazione Obama.
A giugno Kahl ha pubblicato uno studio proprio sul conflitto latente tra Israele ed Iran: “Risk and Rivalry: Israel, Iran and the Bomb“. Una lettura consigliata.