Da eFXnews:
As we’re getting closer to the fresh round of the Greek parliamentary elections which will take place on June 17, the base scenario for most of the market strategists is that the odds are low that Greece will exit the EMU as an outcome of these elections. Alan Ruskin, the global head of G10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank holds a similar forecast. He designed a spreadsheet containing 6 scenarios, probabilities and EUR/USD rates for the Greek elections where the combined probability for Greece’s staying at the EMU after the elections stands at 70%. The following is a brief presentation for the 6 scenarios:
1) A EUR friendly government, probably led by New Democracy, will mange to keep Greece in the EMU. >> Probability 45%, EUR/USD at 1.30.
2) A EUR friendly government that will still end with Greece leaving the EMU; no contagion event will take place. >> Probability 1%, EUR/USD at 1.15.
3) A EUR friendly government that will still end with Greece leaving the EMU; a major global contagion event will take place. >> Probability 4%, EUR/USD at 1.10.
4) An anti-austerity government, probably led by Syriza, will reach a compromise with the Troika and will manage to Keep Greece in the EMU.>> Probability 25%, EUR/USD at 1.25.
5) An anti-austerity government that will fail to keep Greece in the EMU; no contagion event will take place. >> Probability 1%, EUR/USD at 1.15.
6) An anti-austerity government that will fail to keep Greece in the EMU; a major global contagion event will take place. >> Probability 24%, EUR/USD at 1.10.
Noted American economist Nouriel Roubini warned from the total collapse of the euro-zone if funding to Greece gets suspended after the June 17 elections, Bild-Zeitung reported.
“If the funding to Greece stopped, the country will collapse and many investors will get into panic. Then, a run on the banks in Portugal, Spain, and Italy will take place. Who pulls the plug on Greece will in turn provoke a total collapse of the euro-zone,” the report quoted him as saying.
To avoid this dramatic end, Mr. Roubini recommended either providing financial support for an orderly exit or keeping Greece in the euro-zone, while it continues to build its economy for the next 20 years or so; the two solutions will be cheaper for Germany than the breakup of the euro, he added.
On the EUR exchange rate, his view is that the Southern european economies would be more competitive if the single currency trade at par against the US dollar, according to the report.
da: http://www.efxnews.com/story/13025/roubini-warns-total-collapse-euro-zone-after-greeces-elections
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A furia di gridare al lupo al lupo…
F.