Gli affari internazionali nel 2030, scenari estratti dal blog GT2030:
[…]How will the rise of the rest impact the international system? The National Intelligence Council’s draft Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds maps out three broad scenarios:
Reverse Engines. Under this scenario, the international system would consist of several powerful countries — but no single state or bloc of states would have the political or economic leverage to drive the international community toward collective action. Such a world, characterized by a global vacuum of power, assumes that the United States will no longer be willing or capable of sustaining the predominant leadership role it has assumed since 1945. With no other country able to step in to replace the U.S. as a global leader, the resulting divergence of interests would lead to fragmentation and the inability of great powers to work cooperatively to solve global issues. Mercantilism and protectionism could lead economic globalization to go into reverse, constraining technological breakthroughs required to manage scarce global resources. Conflict and disorder would follow.
Great Power Convergence. An alternative scenario is what the NIC calls a “fusion” world, in which major powers work together to adopt and enforce a set of globally accepted rules and norms. As U.S. predominance over the international system recedes, other emerging powers would step in to assume greater responsibility for the management of international affairs commensurate with their swelling economic might. Emerging powers emerge as full stakeholders in a global order that is transformed by power shifts but remains liberal and pluralistic. Great power concert (perhaps enabled by democratization in China) to meet global challenges increases the stability of the international system even as power is diffused within it. U.S. resilience enables it to create enduring partnerships with rising powers to sustain the basis of liberal order. Technological advances create new possibilities for joint management of key global challenges, rewarding positive-sum behavior by the great powers.
Multipolar Divergence—U.S. Primacy. A third scenario, one the NIC calls “fragmentation,” involves a multipolar system characterized by a divergence of views among great powers that challenges global governance. The United States would continue to maintain disproportionate global influence and leverage that influence to address global challenges by working through coalitions of like-minded states. A multispeed global economy accelerates the diffusion of power but an alternative coalition to the West does not form, with developing giants consumed by their domestic challenges – even as the global middle class explodes in ways that transform politics within the rising powers. With inclusive global institutions effectively stalemated, the United States instead turns to its old and new allies in Europe and Asia, who would continue to see Washington as their partner of choice in advancing the norms and rules of a liberal order. The risk of conflict increases with the continued rise of new powers like China and the rapid pace of technological change.[…]
Non so voi ma tra i tre scenari quello per il quale propendo, attualmente, è il terzo.
lo dici pensando ad una rielezione di Obama, oppure ritieni che lo scenario sia (forse) attualmente il più probabile comunque?
Assolutamente non pensavo alle prossime elezioni. Faccio una valutazione di tipo sistemico. Lo ritengo più probabile comunque.
Credo nessuno dei tre scenari sia pienamente condivisibile, in quanto mi sembra siano poco considerati alcuni elementi quali ad esempio il forte legame che, sotto le differenze di facciata, c’è tra Cina e USA, oppure l’importante ruolo che avrà lo sviluppo di molti paesi africani.
Inoltre – e quì sta il vero dato – non si capisce che tipo di valori la società globale promuoverà e sosterrà tra venti anni.. voglio dire che sarà ciò che spinge l’uomo, i suoi desideri (falsi o autentici), a determinare l’assetto globale futuro.
Tuttavia se dovessi inquadrare una delle tre alternative direi la prima anche se con le dovute puntualizzazioni.