Friedman conduce un sintetico ma efficace excursus sugli obiettivi di lungo termine dell’Iran e sugli strumenti adoperati per raggiungere tali obiettivi.
Letturina consigliata a tutti coloro che ritengono l’Iran un covo di fanatici irrazionali.
Iran has applied its strategy under regimes of various ideologies. The shah, whom many considered psychologically unstable and megalomaniacal, pursued this strategy with restraint and care. The current regime, also considered ideologically and psychologically unstable, has been equally restrained in its actions. Rhetoric and ideology can mislead, and usually are intended to do just that.
This long-term strategy, pursued since the 16th century after Persia became Islamic, now sees a window of opportunity opening, engineered in some measure by Iran itself. Tehran’s goal is to extend the American paralysis while it exploits the opportunities that the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq has created. Simultaneously, it wants to create a coherent sphere of influence that the United States will have to accommodate itself to in order to satisfy the demand of its coalition for a stable supply of oil and limited conflict in the region.
Iran is pursuing a two-pronged strategy toward this end. The first is to avoid any sudden moves, to allow processes to run their course. The second is to create a diversion through its nuclear program, causing the United States to replicate its North Korea policy in Iran. If its program causes an Israeli airstrike, Iran can turn that to its advantage as well. The Iranians understand that having nuclear weapons is dangerous but that having a weapons program is advantageous. But the key is not the nuclear program. That is merely a tool to divert attention from what is actually happening — a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East.
PS dimenticavo… “Avoiding the unnecessary war. Myths and reality of the West-Iran nuclear standoff“, di Riccardo Alcaro (Istituto Affari Internazionali).
Sul programma nucleare un articolo sul Foglio di oggi di Ottolenghi.