… secondo un recente National Intelligence Estimate.
Il NIE non è stato reso pubblico ma ne dà notizia, tra gli altri, il Los Angeles Time secondo il quale l'analisi  dell'Intelligence Community statunitense sulla situazione in Afghanistan non sarebbe molto positiva.

"The U.S. intelligence community says in a secret new assessment that the war in Afghanistan is mired in stalemate, and warns that security gains from an increase in American troops have been undercut by pervasive corruption, incompetent governance and Taliban fighters operating from neighboring Pakistan, according to U.S. officials. The sobering judgments, laid out in a classified National Intelligence Estimate completed last month and delivered to the White House, appeared at odds with recent optimistic statements by Pentagon officials and have deepened divisions between U.S. intelligence agencies and American military commanders about progress in the decade-old war. The detailed document, known as an NIE, runs more than 100 pages and represents the consensus view of the CIA and 15 other U.S. intelligence agencies. Similar in tone to an NIE prepared a year ago, it challenges the Pentagon's claim to have achieved lasting security gains in Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan, according to U.S. officials who have read or been briefed on its contents.
In a section looking at future scenarios, the NIE also asserts that the Afghan government in Kabul may not be able to survive as the U.S. steadily pulls out its troops and reduces military and civilian assistance. (…)
Military and Pentagon officials argued that assumptions used by intelligence agencies were flawed."

PS sull'Afghanistan è appena stato pubblicato dal CSIS un report dell'onnipresente Cordesman: "Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan War: How Does This War End"