A proposito delle recenti, drammatiche, notizie dall'India, vi segnalo un importante studio di Lorenzo Vidino, pubblicato dalla RAND Corporation e finanziato dal Pentagono: "Radicalization, Linkage and Diversity: Current Trends in Terrorism in Europe".
Esattamente come evidenziato nel sottotitolo l'autore ha svolto un'approfondita attività di ricerca sui processi di radicalizzazione jihadista in Europa esaminando una serie di case studies che vanno dal 2006 al 2010 (vedi tab 3.1, pagg. 12 – 13). I dati raccolti indicano che, nel complesso, i gruppi terroristici che operano in Europa hanno pochi collegamenti con la "casa madre" al Qaeda.
Un risultato, questo, sostanzialmente in linea con quanto già sostenuto in passato da Marc Sageman.
"With a certain necessary level of oversimplification, it is possible to say that, of the 30 plots identified, excluding the three that were not categorized by type:
– 21 (70 percent) can be classified as independent. A plot is considered independent when the individual or cluster behind it acted with no apparent operational support from AQAM. Of those plots, some were quintessentially independent in the sense that they were carried out by attackers with no connection whatsoever not only to any group but even to any other like-minded individual. That was the case, for example, in the instances of quintessential “lone wolves,” such as Roshonara Choudhry.1 Other plots were carried out by individuals who had some degree of contact with like-minded individuals or with AQAM. But a plot is considered independent if AQAM, although somehow connected to the perpetrator, had no operational involvement in the plot and if the linkage between the two did not translate into any enhancement of the plot’s quality. That was the case, for example, of Mohammed Muhidin Gelle, whose alleged links to al Shabaab in no way influenced the execution of his attack,2 and of Rajib Karim, whose online communications with al Awlaki did not apparently provide him with any operational expertise.
– one (3.33 percent) can be classified as external. A plot is considered external if it was conceived, planned, and executed by AQAM without any support or participation from individuals inside Europe. In reality, the one external plot (the Mickey Mouse Project/ Headley case) could also be categorized as a hybrid plot, since David Coleman Headley reportedly sought to recruit various Europe-based militants to carry out the attack.
– eight (26.66 percent) can be classified as hybrid. In these cases, a homegrown group that formed independently in Europe managed to establish some ties to AQAM and obtain operational support from it. The level of support from AQAM differed in intensity in different cases. In some cases, AQAM trained individuals and sent them back to Europe with instructions to carry out attacks against specified or unspecified targets. In other cases, the connection was limited to a short training stint with the group, and, upon returning to Europe, the European militants acted without any involvement of the group that provided the training. But, for a plot to be categorized as hybrid, the linkage between the Europe-based individual or cluster and AQAM has to have had an impact on the plot’s planning or execution, providing the plotters with some level of professional expertise. >It must be noted that in none of these hybrid cases was there evidence that AQAM attempted to formally recruit those involved in plotting attacks. Rather, a linkage was established via the initiative of the Europ-based cluster."