A proposito di Pechino sull'ultimo numero di Survival Jonathan Holslag, già autore di un interessantissimo Adelphi Paper, spiega come il nazionalismo economico costituisca una "vulnerability trap" per la Cina.
"China’s search for stability through industrialisation and import substitution was prompted by a strong sense of historical vulnerability, the product of a long era of colonialism and internal anarchy. Yet modern economic nationalism has driven China deeper and deeper into a new vulnerability trap. The selective opening-up strategy of Deng and Zhao brought growth, but meant that China became increasingly dependent on foreign companies.
In response, Beijing devised a grand plan in the late 1990s to build strong national industries within the protective shell of the domestic market. This in turn produced a new vulnerability: excess capacity and reliance on foreign consumer markets.
The government now had a new reason to make China’s national champions truly global players. But this policy only aggravated the problem of overproduction, and China’s growing global presence made the country more vulnerable to setbacks – ranging from protectionism against Chinese investors to outright Sinophobia – in partner countries. Hence, the need for a more active and assertive foreign economic policy.
Sinking deeper in the vulnerability trap, China now arrives at a stage where its new global activism is increasingly raising suspicion and encouraging other powers to counterbalance or contain its expanding influence.
This cascade of insecurity has brought China to the brink of great-power rivalry, in which the natural uncertainty brought about by altering balances of power blends with worsening threat perceptions and growing domestic pressure on governments to stand strong.
Thus China has (once again) proven that the ineffectiveness of the state in promoting economic security reproduces the dilemmas that threaten the security of the world and, most of all, China’s own development."