9 Responses

  1. avatar
    AllegraBrigata at |

    Sembra che neanche Obama sia molto contento della sua intelligence…

    Reply
  2. avatar
    Silendo at |

    "said that Mr. Obama had not ordered any major changes inside the intelligence community"

    :)) eh… ci credo…

    Reply
  3. avatar
    Silendo at |

    Paul Pillar su The National Interest:

    "no matter how complete is our information about a situation in a foreign country and how astutely we may analyze that situation, it is impossible for anyone to predict the sort of happenings taking place in Egypt today. Those happenings are not the result of some secret conspiracy, detectable with sufficiently energetic collection of information. They are a spontaneous, leaderless eruption. The responsible government agencies should be expected to understand and to convey the potential for such eruptions, but they cannot predict the timing"

    Reply
  4. avatar
    Silendo at |

    James Clapper (DNI): "Non siamo chiaroveggenti".

    Reply
  5. avatar
    Silendo at |

    "Panetta said he has established a 35-member task force at the CIA to examine the issue and instructed agency station chiefs in the Middle East to intensify their intelligence-gathering efforts in countries where governments are potentially vulnerable.
    The stakes are substantial for the CIA, which relies heavily on intelligence services in Egypt and elsewhere in its counterterrorism operations. The threat of al-Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen is also considered one of the United States's most worrisome threats.
    " (fonte WaPo)

    Reply
  6. avatar
    Silendo at |
    Reply
  7. avatar
    Silendo at |

    Il parere di Paul Pillar:

    "Large and important forces, capable of being understood with the right information and analysis, are involved in the dramatic events unfolding in Egypt. Those forces create possibilities and set limits. But within those possibilities and limits there is a wide range of feasible events and outcomes. Which events occur (or when they occur) and what outcomes ensue depend on many other variables that are so invisible or transient or numerous that they are not capable of being understood, much less predicted, no matter how good is our information and analysis. The lines between different possible paths that history can take are often awfully thin and hard to see. The lines of causation can be thin and difficult to see even when the difference between the paths is quite important, such as whether a ruler of an important country stays or goes.
    This latest chapter in the Egyptian saga demonstrates how absurd (inevitable, but still absurd) are recriminations about intelligence services not “predicting” the unrest and ensuing events. If the question concerns a strategic understanding of the potential for such events and their underlying causes, no one has given any reason to doubt official statements that the responsible agencies provided plenty of pertinent warnings and analysis. If the question is instead one of specific prophecy as to timing or outcome, then we are in the realm of the unpredictable. That would be understood (as Stephen Walt has observed) to anyone familiar with the work of social scientists who have long had plenty of trouble trying to predict the outbreak or course of revolutionary situations. Moreover, what really matters is not anyone's prediction but instead the quality of policy. As I addressed earlier, policymakers do not (and should not) jump and change their policies in response to every warning they get from the bureaucracy."

    Reply
  8. avatar
    utente anonimo at |

    http://nonciclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/AISE

    le cose vanno fatte con senso e diligenza…

    buona  Domenica a tutti…

    FOLGORE

    p.s. oggi e domani c'è il 2×1 ai museu nazionali paghi uno entrano due…per S.Valentino…dai portate un po' di pulzelle…la cultura è importante…e fate un figurone…

    Reply
  9. avatar
    Silendo at |

    Carissimo Folgore, ho dimenticato di porgerti i miei omaggi 😉

    Reply

Leave a Reply to utente anonimo Click here to cancel reply.


(obbligatorio)