Sull'efficienza dell'Intelligence community statunitense si è discusso anche durante l'audizione per la conferma del nuovo Principal Deputy DNI, Stephanie O'Sullivan:
"A senior CIA official testifying at the hearing defended the intelligence community's performance, saying that the nation's spy services had warned the Obama administration late last year that Egypt's government could fall.
"We warned of instability," said Stephanie O'Sullivan, who has been nominated to become the nation's No. 2 intelligence official. The hearing was on her nomination to be principal deputy director of the Office of Director of National Intelligence. But, she added, "we didn't know what the triggering mechanism would be."
(…) O'Sullivan deflected persistent questions from senators attempting to pin down precisely when Obama was told that budding street protests in Cairo had the potential to topple Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
"What I am interested in is when the president was told how serious this was," said Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who noted that O'Sullivan had been warned that the question would come up during her confirmation hearing. O'Sullivan acknowledged that she had been made aware that she would face questions on the subject but "not in this level of detail."
(…) Speaking more broadly about intelligence on turmoil in the Middle East, Feinstein said, "I've looked at some intelligence in this area." She described it as "lacking . . . on collection."
The criticism triggered swift replies from intelligence agencies, which have frequently been accused of failing to anticipate emerging threats since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the case of Egypt, a senior U.S. official said, the criticism is unfair.
"Analysts anticipated and highlighted the concern that unrest in Tunisia might spread well before demonstrations erupted in Cairo," said a U.S. official familiar with the intelligence on Egypt. "They later warned that unrest in Egypt would likely gain momentum and could threaten the regime."
The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the official lacked the authority to discuss intelligence, added that analysts "have been highlighting the many variables at play and the potential for escalation . . . keeping top U.S. policymakers constantly up to date."
Riflessione personale: i soliti, vecchi, problemi riguardo alla capacità dell'estimative intelligence.