… questo paper di Adnan Vatensever, del Carnegie: “Russia’s Oil Exports: Economic Rationale versus Strategic Gains“.
La posizione dell’esperto è la seguente. La Russia sta continuando ad espandere la sua rete di pipelines, in ogni direzione. Verso la Cina e l’Asia, verso il Mar Nero, il Baltico e l’Artico. Un’analisi complessiva, secondo Vatensever, rivela la non razionalità economica di tale “espansione”.
Bottlenecks in reaching foreign markets did justify building new export infrastructure during the past decade, but they are no longer an issue. Furthermore, the growth in Russia’s oil output has slowed down considerably in the past five years, and it is widely assumed that the prospects for substantial growth in the future are weak.
Unless Russia undertakes a monumental task in energy conservation in its transport sector and achieves a major breakthrough in oil field development, the potential to further expand crude oil exports above current volumes remains limited.
Le motivazioni quindi non sarebbero economiche ma strategiche. Di influenza strategica, aggiungerei io.
La Russia in tal modo punta a perseguire vantaggi strategici sia verso i paesi consumatori, la Cina ad esempio, sia verso i Paesi produttori il cui export petrolifero deve passare attraverso le pipelines sotto il controllo russo, sia nei confronti di altre trattative commerciali/industriali, come ad esempio quelle che riguardano il gas o la produzione nucleare.
Moscow perceives substantial strategic gains in pursuing its policy. Each of its new oil export projects is likely to bring rewards ranging from positioning Russia as a strategic energy partner with China to gaining additional leverage when dealing with oil transit countries and Caspian producers. Additionally, some of Russia’s efforts to negotiate oil projects are part of a larger energy bargain— they often support Moscow’s objective of acquiring a leading role not only in oil markets, but also in gas markets and the export of nuclear power technology.
Da notare le conclusioni:
As Russia expands its oil export network and the future destination of its oil exports becomes increasingly uncertain, Washington needs to promote transparency, stability, and predictability. These goals could be advanced through active diplomacy in three specific areas:
– Establishing a platform for sharing information on oil production and export trends in Russia and the Caspian Sea region.
– Supporting the government of Kazakhstan in pursuing stable export routes for its growing supply of crude oil.
– Supporting initiatives aimed at reversing the flow of oil through the Odessa–Brody Pipeline connecting Ukraine’s coast on the Black Sea to its border with Poland. This would carry Caspian oil to Europe and thus enhance oil supply security in Eastern Europe.