"NATO will not disappear. It is here to stay, if for no other reason than inertia. It will still have a useful role to play in anti-piracy missions, post-conflict cleanups and as a seal of approval for the few Western Balkan states which have yet to join the West. But the Europeans are already developing alternatives. First, sensing that Russia is no longer worried about NATO, the Central Europeans will start looking at bilateral agreements with the United States. This is already occurring in the area of missile defense. Second, other European countries will form agreements among themselves. The Scandinavian countries, which are divided between NATO and non-NATO states, are already making military agreements with the Baltic states, which Sweden and Finland see as their own sphere of influence. The French are developing amphibious capabilities with the United Kingdom and Mediterranean countries on their own and have signed a defensive agreement with the United Kingdom to balance their political and economic relationship with Germany. Paris is also looking to sell Moscow an advanced helicopter carrier despite the Baltic chagrin over such a deal. This independent movement among NATO and non-NATO states is just more evidence that the alliance’s continued existence alone will not save it from irrelevancy."
Ho letto il nuovo Concetto Strategico. Confermo l'impressione: niente di sostanzialmente nuovo.
Segnalo questo saggio pubblicato un paio di giorni fa dalla RAND: "Risking NATO".
Il parere, negativo, di Andrea Gilli.
"NATO summit: great on presentation, less good on substance" (RUSI).
"NATO's next strategic concept" (Strategic Studies Quarterly).
"NATO: more consensus but challenges remain" (IISS Strategic Comments)
"NATO beyond the Lisbon Summit", i video e l'audio della conferenza svoltasi ieri presso il CSIS di Washington.
"NATO: An Inadequate Strategic Concept?" (Stratfor)
"NATO will not disappear. It is here to stay, if for no other reason than inertia. It will still have a useful role to play in anti-piracy missions, post-conflict cleanups and as a seal of approval for the few Western Balkan states which have yet to join the West. But the Europeans are already developing alternatives. First, sensing that Russia is no longer worried about NATO, the Central Europeans will start looking at bilateral agreements with the United States. This is already occurring in the area of missile defense. Second, other European countries will form agreements among themselves. The Scandinavian countries, which are divided between NATO and non-NATO states, are already making military agreements with the Baltic states, which Sweden and Finland see as their own sphere of influence. The French are developing amphibious capabilities with the United Kingdom and Mediterranean countries on their own and have signed a defensive agreement with the United Kingdom to balance their political and economic relationship with Germany. Paris is also looking to sell Moscow an advanced helicopter carrier despite the Baltic chagrin over such a deal. This independent movement among NATO and non-NATO states is just more evidence that the alliance’s continued existence alone will not save it from irrelevancy."