"WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Iran may be able to build a missile capable of striking the United States by 2015, according to an unclassified Defense Department report on Iran's military sent to Congress and released on Monday.
"With sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could probably develop and test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the United States by 2015," said the April report, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters.
A classified version was also submitted to Congress.
The timing of advances in Iran's long-range missile technology is being closely watched in Washington, which accuses Tehran of pursuing nuclear weapons and is pushing for a new round of sanctions. Iran denies the charges and says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.
"Iran's nuclear program and its willingness to keep open the possibility of developing nuclear weapons is a central part of its deterrent strategy," the report said.
The U.S. military tried and failed to shoot down a simulated Iranian missile strike on the United States in January, in a botched $150 million exercise over the Pacific Ocean. That attempt failed because of a malfunction in a radar built by Raytheon Co.
It was not immediately clear whether the latest estimate on Iran's missile technology was a departure from a May 2009 National Intelligence Estimate, which deemed Tehran unlikely to have a long-range missile until between 2015 and 2020, according to U.S. officials who saw the report at the time.
The 2009 estimate was revised from an earlier range of between 2012 to 2015.
Representative Ike Skelton, chairman of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, called the report a "comprehensive view of the military situation in Iran."
Qui il report (trovato da Babbano).
DoD – Unclassified Report on Military Power of Iran
Ma il report intero ?
E' un NIE o qualche altro tipo di situazione presentata?
Frattaz
Non è il NIE. Quello non sarebbe presentato dal Pentagono ma dal DNI. Precisamente dal National Intelligence Council
E' un report. Credo sia stato presentato ad una Commissione parlamentare. Credo…
Era ' a copy of which was obtained by reuters' a farmi sperare nella possibilità di trovarlo per intero da qualche parte sul web. Penso che il congresso abbia solo il materiale classified in più.
Da cretino non avevo notato che venisse dalla Difesa. Mea culpa ;);)
Davo per scontato per qualche motivo fosse un report dell NCPC per l' ODNI …
Per altro :
The U.S. military tried and failed to shoot down a simulated Iranian missile strike on the United States in January, in a botched $150 million exercise over the Pacific Ocean. That attempt failed because of a malfunction in a radar built by Raytheon Co.
Sarà….. ma a me ha fatto un attimo ridere.
Frattaz
Ti abbasso il livello del Blog !
A mia discolpa, mi aveva distratto l'ospite di Matrix :D:D
Frattaz
"Ti abbasso il livello del Blog"
:)) ma non dirlo neanche per scherzo….
Il report molto probabilmente sarà reperibile a breve…
Probabilmente il Report del DoD fa riferimento ai programmi di evoluzione/potenziamento dei vettori Shahab, frutto della collaborazione tecnico-militare tra l'Iran da un lato e Russia, Cina e North Korea dall'altro.
La Corea del Nord, con i suoi Teapodong-2 (vettori per messa in orbita di satelliti ma impiegabili come missili balistici) potrebbe arrivare ad un range offensivo compreso tra 4000 e 6000 km (fonte fas.org). Se tale tecnologia viene implementata nel programma Shahab potrebbe sensiilemte aumentare la capacità offensiva di Teheran.
Sono curioso di dare uno sguardo al Report!!! Silendo, lo attendiamo con trepidante attesa :))))
barry lyndon
PS : Frattaz, come vedi, qualche piccola chance di diventare una seria "nuclear threat" l'Iran sembra avercela 😉
Ti dirò barry, il fatto è che qui si parla solo di capacità missilistica, per quanto riguarda l'eventuale nuclear capability aspetterei (come te del resto :D) il testo intero avuto dalla reuters.
Sicuramente avere un vettore sarebbe un bel passo avanti, visto il problema di dimensioni delle testate dovute al blueprint che sembra essere un po' datato.
Però ho solo i papers di Fitzpatrick e un report (QFR) NCPC al riguardo, quindi ho una visuale limitatissima !
Poi…che te lo dico a fare… io sono qua solo per imparare e leggere tutto quello che posso 😉
Frattaz
Ps. A me sembra un hype da NSC-68 ….. non so a voi che siete sicuramente più informati.
Direi che la capacità (avere il vettore e la bomba) non è sufficiente. Bisogna vedere quanti vettori, che efficacia, ecc…
Barry, appena lo trovo lo posto
Frattaz, vuoi dire che si stanno gettando le basi per una strategia di contenimento?
Forse è questo ?
http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_721_Report.pdf
ALTRA versione dell'ARTICOLO
Report to Congress Outlines Iranian Threats
By John J. Kruzel
American Forces Press Service
April 20, 2010 – Iran may be capable of striking the United States with an intercontinental ballistic missile by 2015, according to a Defense Department report submitted to Congress yesterday.
The unclassified analysis outlines near-term and longer-term threats posed by Iran, including Iran's nuclear ambitions and its desire to extend its influence in the Middle East.
"With sufficient foreign assistance," the report states, "Iran could probably develop and test an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States by 2015."
The report states that central to Iran's "deterrent strategy" is its pursuit of a nuclear program that could potentially move it closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Iran contends that its nuclear ambitions are for peaceful purposes.
"Iran's nuclear program and its willingness to keep open the possibility of developing nuclear weapons is a central part of its deterrent strategy," the report says.
The department's release of the analysis comes on the heels of the Nuclear Security Summit and testimony by the Pentagon's top policy chief, who last week said the U.S. approach to Iran remains centered on preventing it from obtaining nuclear weapons and on countering Iran's influence in the Middle East.
The Nuclear Security Summit, which convened leaders of more than 40 countries here last week, followed the unveiling of the Nuclear Posture Review, a Defense Department-led effort that represents the first overarching look at U.S. nuclear strategy since the end of the Cold War.
While the Nuclear Posture Review narrows the number of scenarios in which the United States would execute a nuclear strike, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said this week that "all options are on the table" for countries such as North Korea and Iran.
Michele Flournoy, undersecretary of defense for policy, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that President Barack Obama's administration continues to view challenges posed by Iran as a top national security concern.
"First, we are working to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons," she told senators, delineating the challenges posed by Iran. "Second, we are countering Iran's destabilizing activities and support for terrorism and extremists in the Middle East and around the world."
The written report to Congress cited Iran's influence in the Middle East — including its proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, in Lebanon and Gaza, respectively — and its reach into Iraq and Afghanistan. Military and defense officials have characterized such behavior as "destabilizing."
Flournoy last week said a vital component of U.S. strategy to counter Iranian influence is to strengthen the security capacities of vulnerable states in the region, noting that both Gates and Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, both have traveled to the region in recent months.
"It's a vital avenue for countering destabilizing Iranian activities, and we believe we are seeing some results," Flournoy said of efforts to build partner capacity. "In Iraq and Lebanon, for instance, our efforts to develop the capacity of security forces and improve governance have helped to weaken Iran's proxies."
The Obama administration's diplomatic overtures have helped to shore up the international consensus needed to put pressure on Iran, Flournoy said, referring to economic and other sanctions the United States and its allies are seeking to place on Iran.
"Meanwhile, our efforts in [the Defense Department] have helped to shore up the ability of our regional partners to defend themselves and to counter destabilizing activities from Iran," she said. "We have also reassured our partners that the U.S. is fully committed to their security."
Altro documento….
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL32048.pdf
BABBANO ASIMMETRICO ….
http://www.politico.com/static/PPM145_link_042010.html
BABBANO ASIMMETRICO
Sei un mito!!! 😉
http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/
April 20, 2010
Categories:
U.S. report: Iran's chief military goal is regime survival
The Defense Department submitted a report to Congress Tuesday on Iran’s military power.
The report (available here), required by the National Defense Authorization Act, tracks closely with testimony provided last week to the Senate Armed Services Committee by DIA chief Gen. Ronald Burgess.
The report assesses that the chief goal of Iran’s military strategy is regime survival. And it describes Iran’s military power as being largely deterrent in nature.
“To ensure regime survival, Iran’s security strategy is based first on deterring an attack,” the report says. “Iran’s principles of military strategy include deterrence, asymmetrical retaliation and attrition warfare.”
“Iran’s nuclear program and its willingness to keep open the possibility of developing nuclear weapons is a central part of its deterrent strategy,” it says.
Iran also seeks “to become the strongest and most influential country in the Middle East and to influence world affairs,” the report says. Interestingly, the report says, “in recent years, Iran’s ideological goals have taken a back seat to pragmatic considerations.”
Posted by Laura Rozen 07:23 PM
B.A.
E pensare che "non" conosco l'inglese ….
B. A.
Grazie S. per la citazione, ma non dovevi. Ero già contento per il # 11.
BABBANO ASIMMETRICOOOOOO000000000ooooooo000 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Babbano, chapeau!!!!!!!
Domo arigatou gozaimashita!
Frattaz
Figurati, Babbano. Per così poco…