In tempi di crisi tra Stati Uniti ed Iran e con le voci che si rincorrono di un probabile attacco americano è interessante capire cosa ne pensano i centri di studio strategici israeliani.
Nizan Feldman, dell’Institute for National Security Studies, nell’ultimo Strategic Assessment (agosto 2007) analizza l’effetto che una crisi militare avrebbe sui mercati petroliferi.
Dopo aver valutato il peso dell’Iran nel mercato energetico globale, Feldman ipotizza tre scenari giungendo alle seguenti conclusioni:
"Every concrete diplomatic or military effort to contain Iran’s nuclear program will have an effect on the world energy market. Even a crisis that does not involve a reduction in the oil supply will cause a price increase, as concern regarding a future reduction in oil supply will certainly impact on trading. Psychological factors are likely to have a major impact on trading for an extended period of time, and will intensify if Iran does in fact attempt to disrupt the world’s oil supply. But neither the price of oil nor world economic activity is shaped by psychological factors alone. Rather, in the long term they are determined in accordance with market conditions of supply and demand. The three scenarios presented above show that it is possible to substantially offset the damage that Iran could cause to the world oil supply.
American military superiority reduces Iran’s chances of closing the Straits of Hormuz for an extended period of time. It also constitutes a deterrent against ongoing attacks on the oil facilities of the Gulf states. In addition to the military option, other measures can reduce damage to the oil supply, including increased pumping rates, the use of oil transfer routes that bypass the Straits of Hormuz, and the channeling of oil reserves into the world market. Increasing the effectiveness of these measures will reduce Iran’s ability to cause long term damage to the world economy and can take much of the sting out of the Iranian oil weapon. Nonetheless, these steps will involve significant expenditures and preliminary preparations and will not become effective overnight. And again, in a time of crisis, they will not completely offset the psychological factors that spike oil prices.
Decision makers who are concerned about such effects should ask themselves what will happen to the price of oil the day after Iran announces it has carried out a successful nuclear test."