Riporto dal Counterterrorism Blog:
"Update on a very tense situation in Lebanon
by O. Guitta
On this 23rd anniversary of the attacks (it happened on Oct 23, 1983) against our Marines and French troops in Beirut which killed respectively 241 and 58, the situation in Lebanon remains very worrisome to say the least.
In the aftermath of the war, here are a few facts to know while assessing a very gloomy future:
· Hezbollah is against Sunni-Shia divide and is fine coordinating actions with Hamas.
Both are unifying forces against Israel. Hezbollah elements have been in Gaza training Hamas
·Recently Hezbollah thanked Hamas for keeping Israel busy for the past six years while Hezbollah preparing for war.
·Hezbollah’s goals regarding hostages was and is to negotiate a total package including the Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas. Interestingly in the past, Hezbollah worked on releasing not only Lebanese Shia but Palestinian Sunnis as well.
·UNIFIL is a disaster in waiting. IT’s been a joke for the past twenty eight years and this one is going to be the same. No clear mandate, no willingness to tame down Hezbollah as seen in the recent episode where Spanish troops stood down at the view of Hezbollah fighters.
·Even French president Chirac is counting on a maximum of 4 to 5 months of calm.
·UNIFIL is already seen by some as an occupation force and a European diplomat was recently quoted as saying that after an attack on Unifil, international forces will be gone in 3 days.
·Soon we are going back to square 1,i.e. pre July situation.
·Indeed Hezbollah is rearming and UN Resolution 1701 is far from being enforced anytime soon.
· Also on the Lebanese political scene, Syria is playing with fire and trying to ignite a civil war by pushing Hezbollah and its allies including Christian General Aoun towards a major confrontation with the Siniora government and the Hariri "March 14" forces.
. Finally, Hezbollah might start at any moment a terror campaign in the West or against Western targets. Incidentally just a few days ago, Iranian President Ahmadinejad threatened very clearly Europe."